The Governors’ Highway Safety Administration has issued a new report, New Study: Teen Driver Deaths Increase in 2012 (Feb. 26, 2013), based on preliminary fatality statistics for 2012, and the key finding should send a big shiver up our collective national spine: after years of decline, deaths of 16 and 17 year old drivers increased in the first six months of last year. From 2011 to 2012, the national number of 16 year old driver deaths increased from 86 to 107 and the number of 17 year old deaths from 116 to 133.
As with many statistics in traffic safety, the numbers require a bit of perspective. These are six month, year over year numbers, and they don’t include anything about drivers older (or younger) than 16 or 17, nor anything about passengers, other drivers, or pedestrians. Historically, more passengers, other drivers and pedestrians die in crashes involving teen drivers than drivers themselves. And the report does not touch on injuries or property damage.
Still, the very fact that our national progress has at least leveled out must set off alarms bells and launch a search for the reasons. The report, duly noting the great progress that has been made in the past few years, identifies the economic recession and now the recovery as the most likely explanation for the decline in fatalities in recent years and now the slight uptick. It also notes that after a wave of teen driver law improvements in the mid 2000’s, the pace of Graduated Driver Law reform has slackened in the past few years.
It is interesting to focus on the decline and improvement in the economy as the most likely reason for the decline and now the small increase. The report surmises that the economic downturn both impacted employment (and thus spending money) among teens, and coincided with a run up in gas prices. This should in theory have resulted in less “discretionary” driving — joyriding — which we know is more dangerous for teens than “purposeful driving” — teens on the road with a destination, a set route, an important reason to reach their destination (school, job, activity) and a consequence if they don’t arrive on time and safely. On the other hand, if improvement in the economy by itself is the main reason that teen driver fatalities are now increasing, what does this say about the effectiveness of our teen driver law improvements, or the effectiveness of parent oversight of teen drivers? In other words, if the ups and owned of the economy are by primary mover behind the fatality statistics, that would crowd out the explanation that our laws, enforcement, and public education are the main reasons, This is, to some extent, a zero sum game. for the recent improvements.
I am not an academic researcher. I do read every study I can get my hands on (and I appreciate the hard work of NHTSA, the AAA Foundation, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, and IIHS, who do the hard work of these studies). I try to spot trends and pass them along as advice to parents. So let me offer this pessimistic view: Yes, improvement in the economy is the most likely reason for teens driving more, and this means there is more joyriding than there was two or three years ago. But this uptick in the miles teen are driving now coincides with a full fledged epidemic of distracting electronics – not just texting, but teens having access to and using, without a second thought, the increasingly complex array of electronics that are becoming standard in cars. As one example, the big news out of the recent Consumer Electronic Show in Las Vegas was dashboard-mounted screens that give the driver access to all of the same apps available on phones – not just navigation and music, but Facebook, Twitter, Angry Birds, Words With Friends, and much more. And this time no one is claiming that these electronics are voice-activated only.
In summary, the economy is improving, and teens are driving more, and they are doing so with more distracting electronics than ever before — gadgets, apps, and fun stuff that threaten to overwhelm pledges to not text. My hypothesis, which perhaps the researchers can test, is that the economy is resulting in more driving, but the crashes and fatalities are likely increasing due to the unprecedented availability of distracting electronics in cars.
Contrary and sideways views welcome as comments.
